AL902024 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview

CAUTION!
This simulation is NOT based on the official forecast track! It is using the AVNO model.
More than likely this is because it is an invest area and does not have an official track yet.

JTWC Forecast Consistency Evaluation
ForecastIndexConsistency
Objective Model Dispersion Evaluation
ForecastIndexConsistency

Forecast consistency is based on how much difference there is between this forecast and a previous forecast. If the variation between the current forecast and the forecast made 24 hours previously is less than half of the average error, consistency is Excellent. Between half and the average, Good, between the average and 1.5 times the average Fair, and if over 1.5 times the average historical error consistency isconsidered Poor. Note that consistency is different from accuracy, but accuracy can only be determined in hindsight. A consistent forecast is more likely to be accurate than one that is jumping around, but it could be consistently wrong!


National Level Economic Impact Forecast
name totloss
Bahamas $ .00 Million USD
Bermuda $ .09 Million USD

type loss
Total Forecast Impact: $ .09 Million USD

National Level Population Impact Forecast
country_name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
Bermuda          6,772    

name pop_tswind pop_huwind pop_surge
Total:          6,772    


Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!
Model Performance Summary
tech err012 err024 err048 err072 err096 err120 trend
AEMN 53 35 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
AVNO 50 53 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
CEMN 42 93 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
CLP5 50 84 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
CMC 44 107 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
TABD 101 234 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
TABM 56 114 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
TABS 37 66 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
TVCE 36 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
TVCN 36 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING
XTRP 60 130 -1 -1 -1 -1 INCREASING

(11 rows)


Notes:
Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast



Report generated by cortex2.methaz.org at Wed 12 Jun 2024 17:07:56 UTC
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